| Summary: In this study, trend analysis of annual maximum precipitation values, observed at standard time in 10 Meteorological Stations in East Black Sea Region, has been performed. First of all, Run (Swed Eisenhart) Homogeneity Test was applied to all data and the data of each homogeneous meteorological station were analyzed by Trend Analysis Method (TAM). There are two types of methods to determine trends; parametric and nonparametric methods. In the study, Simple Regression Analysis method was applied as the parametric methods, which are used if the data fit normal distribution and no missing data exist. Mann-Kendall Test and Spearmans Rho Test were used among the nonparametric TAM methods, which are used when the data do not fit the normal distribution and there are many missing data. In the MSs, where trend was determined, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall Order Correlation Test was used to statistically determine the trend starting year. Prior to the Trend Analysis method, in order to determine the true trend presence, Pre-Whitening method was used to eliminate the serially correlated (internal dependency) that caused the non-real trend to occur. This method was applied only for the Mann-Kendall Test, which does not negate the effect of the serially correlated (internal dependence). At the end of the study, when trends of rainfall intensity trends in standard time periods were evaluated for 10 meteorological stations in the Eastern Black Sea Region, in general an increasing tendency was found. |
