M.Sc Tezi Görüntüleme

Student:	Nilgün Elif MAZLUM
Supervisor:	Assis.Prof. Dr. Tülin ARAZ
Department:	Mechanical Engineering
Institution:	Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences
University:	Karadeniz Technical University, Turkey

Title of the Thesis:	THE TIME SERIES FOR OUTPUT ANALYSIS IN SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS
Level:	M.Sc
Acceptance Date:	1/3/2000
Number of Pages:	125
Registration Number:	i1092

Summary:

In this study, output analysis have been performed in the discrete system simulation. Firstly, discrete system simulation has been described and measures of performance and other estimates are determined. Steady state and non-stationary simulation for output analysis have been emphasized. In addition, classic statistical methods are explained. In this study, especially time series have been explained and data has runned by ARIMA and has used MINITAB.

Finally; the experiments show that the model of ENKISA ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the most appropiate model. The appropiate model for the outputs of ENKISA (1, 1, 1) can not be found. The process of AR(1) and AR(2) are given the same process of MA(1) and MA(2) for the ENKISA model. For AR(2) the ?2 test give more appropiate results for İGÖ model.

Keywords: Time Series, Simulation, ARIMA